Vodafone Group : le + cher des opérateur mérite-t-il son prix ?

David Einhorn de GreenLight a une position sur Vodaphone.

Pas de copié-collé car la lettre est réservée aux partners, mais vous pouvez la consulter ici :
David Einhorn’s Q4 Letter

A noter que l’action a pris plus de 10% depuis l’annonce de discussions quant à l’avenir des 45% de Verizon détenu  par Vodafone

Je vous copie colle l’article du Financial Times sur le sujet

Financial times a écrit :

March 6, 2013 11:18 pm

Talk stays cheap for Vodafone and Verizon

By Paul Taylor in the US and Daniel Thomas in London

A few years ago Vodafone’s board commissioned a study of the company’s options for its 45 per cent stake in Verizon Wireless, the largest US mobile network operator.

The study included the full purchase of Verizon Communications for $160bn – potentially one of the largest M&A transactions on record. When asked about the prospect of a Vodafone bid, Ivan Seidenberg, then chief executive of Verizon, famously banged his fist on the table in the FT’s London office and insisted that the US group would be “the hunter”.

Now Mr Siedenberg’s successor, Lowell McAdam, could finally bring this to reality owing to a confluence of global and domestic trends in the telecoms industry that has seen the US market soar even as the European markets have sunk.

This week the long running rumours of a Vodafone and Verizon merger intensified even though people with knowledge of the companies on both sides of the Atlantic say that there is no deal on the table in the latest of the regular series of meetings between the two.

Three people with knowledge of the situation say that there are no negotiations towards any particular outcome, even if talks remain “open and far reaching” between the two parties about an eventual change in ownership structure. What this might be, when and if it will happen at all, remains uncertain.

The Verizon management has made no secret of its desire to buy a business that generated an $8.5bn dividend last year. Fran Shammo, Verizon chief financial officer, again told a conference this week that “there was nothing new to report on the Vodafone venture”, repeating that “Verizon has always been interested in owning all of the US wireless business.”

Vittorio Colao, Vodafone chief executive, has also been consistent in his message about the stake in Verizon Wireless, describing himself as the custodian of an asset that sits outside core operations. The sale of the 45 per cent stake could raise as much as $115bn for Vodafone.

In Barcelona last week, Mr Colao again said that he kept “an open mind” to a situation that is reviewed at length in a board meeting twice a year.

As such, in theory, there is a willing buyer and a potentially willing seller. The conditions have also improved for a deal – certainly much better than during the fractious relationship that existed between the two companies’ previous managements that saw the Verizon Wireless dividend frozen for many years.

The arrival of Mr McAdam as chief executive in July 2011 has created a closer bond between the two groups, with his personal rapport with Mr Colao seen by company insiders as setting up the ground for greater collaboration – and even one day the first steps towards merger.

The other important aspect to have changed is respective sizes, multiples and strength. Vodafone and Verizon are now close in terms of market capitalisations, allowing any merger to be presented as that of equals.

Vodafone and Verizon company executives meet at least six times a year about the Verizon Wireless joint venture, and more including the talks over the joint procurement deal between the two groups.

But Mr Colao and Mr McAdam are not fixed in their thinking. According to one person familiar with the talks, “this is a conundrum that needs resolution that they both inherited, they are open-minded but there is no timetable or road map. They talk about potential outcomes from a merger to a sell down or a partial sell down”.

Nevertheless, these people say talks have never progressed further than “blue sky thinking”, and they play down rumours of more detailed discussions. “There is an openness as always to talk about the routes forward but no change in rhetoric and no decisions made,” said one person.

One barrier to a merger or sale is the capital gains tax that might be levied on any deal. A theoretical outright sale by Vodafone for cash of its Verizon Wireless stake would likely incur a capital-gains tax bill of as much as $25bn-30bn, according to Citi, although there are schemes that could potentially be used to reduce this charge.

There are also strategic questions for Vodafone should it sell the stake. One person close to the group describes it as “the most valuable single asset” owned by the company and a source of valuable annual dividends, at a time when its core European businesses are struggling.

Some analysts estimate that Vodafone will derive up to 70 per cent of its earnings from Verizon Wireless over the next few years, up from just 40 per cent in 2010.

Analysts have said that a sale would help Vodafone make acquisitions in its core European operations, including Kabel Deutschland, Germany’s largest cable operator, and Yoigo, the Spanish operator, although both deals could be funded from the company’s own balance sheet.

A larger acquisition, such as a deal with John Malone’s Liberty Global, remains on the far reaches of current thinking, according to informed people.

The stumbling block for a straight merger of Vodafone and Verizon would be reluctance in the US to expose shareholders to the deeply damaged European telecoms markets, although under one scenario advocated by some analysts, Verizon could sell or spin off international assets after a full merger.

Even so, at present there remains no clarity on any outcome to what some executives have in the past described as a “high quality problem”, although the US hunter may finally be wearing down its prey.

Sachant que Vodafone capitalise entre 130 et 150 Milliards de Dollars …

Attention, le deal n’est pas confirmé : il doit être financé. Les "arbitrageurs" commencent à peine à entrer dans la partie manifestement.
Cela dit, je n’irai pas jusqu’à mettre un multiple du cours actuel comme estimé de la valeur de VOD. Ce qui reste hors Verizon Wireless n’est pas le business du siècle. Je mettrais une valeur de 4 fois l’EBITDA pour être conservateur, 6 à tout casser si je veux être très optimiste (en ligne avec les concurrents).
L’allocation intelligente du cash éventuellement libéré par la transaction pourrait toutefois jouer un rôle important à l’avenir… Mais difficile de prédire cela.

Il y a quand meme quelque chose qui m’echappe sur ce deal. Ci-dessous, ce ne sont que des hypothese; aucune annonce officielle n’ayant ete faite. Les chiffres sont bases sur divers articles trouves sur bloomberg, FT et WSJ.

Verizon rachete 45% de Verizon Wireless pour 130 Mds USD.
Moitie en cash, moitie en titres.
Verizon, au cours de vendredi, vaut 135 Mds USD.
Donc, apres transaction, Vodafone possederait environ 1/3 de Verizon.

Cela voudrait dire que, pour 45% dans Verizon Wireless, Vodafone prend 1/3 de la societe qui en detiendra 100%, et prend aussi 65 mds USD en cash.
Ai-je rate quelque chose?

en raisonnant par l’absurde, avec 45% de Verizon Wireless, Vodafone pourrait avoir 50% de Verizon (incluant Verizon Wireless) en faisant l’hypothese que les 65 Mds USD en cash sont reinvestis en actions Verizon.
EVidemment, il y a beaucoup de dettes crees en meme temps, mais je trouve c cas assez interessant.

Pourquoi Vivendi et Verizon ont racheté cash la participation minoritaire à des prix élevés à Vodafone ?

Celui ci fait de la guérilla juridique pour qu’ils soient prêt à payer le prix fort pour s’en débarrasser ?

Bonjour

Je possède également des Vodafone sur mon PEA Binck. Et pour l’instant difficile de comprendre comment sera traité le spin off car il n’y a pas d’info chez Binck.

J’ai l’impression que Vodafone ne sera plus éligible au PEA.

Si quelqu’un a des informations, je suis preneur moi aussi !

Merci par avance

Sur mon PEA Binck les actions Verizon viennent d’apparaitre.
Je vais me renseigner demain pour savoir comment cela va se dérouler.

Pour ma part à la place de mes 742 VOD
je me retrouve avec
19 Verizon Communications Inc.
402 VOD
et 5 Vodafone Group PLC -voor split-

bref pour l’instant je ne comprend rien.

Ce matin je viens de voir sur mon relevé d’opération de mon PEA binck le 25 cette ligne
Virement
15% tax spin-off Vodafone Group Plc.
débit 100,42 euros

Je ne sais pas à quoi cela correspond mais cela fait mal.
Je n’ai plus qu’à aller aux renseignements si je trouve un conseiller compétant chez Binck sur cette affaire.

"corporate notification" de mon broker a écrit :

Shareholders have a choice as to the tax treatment of the cash element of the Return of Value. Holders can elect to receive the cash distribution as a payment which will be treated as Income for tax purposes (Options 1 and 2), or as a payment which will be treated as Capital for tax purposes (Options 3 and 4).

The Return of Capital will be facilitated by the issue of B shares for the Capital option and C shares for the income option that will be issued to your account on the 24th February 2014, these will then be converted into the cash on or around the 4th March 2014.

Holders who elect to receive their Return of Value in the form of a Capital Payment (B shares) will not be able to sell their Vodafone shares between our election deadline date and 24th February 2014.

With regards to the distribution of shares in Verizon Communications Inc., shareholders have a choice as to whether holders wish to retain the Verizon shares (Options 1 and 3) or whether holders wish to sell these in the market free of commission charges (Options 2 and 4). Holders opting to sell will be credited with the proceeds of the sale upon settlement of the trade.

The Scheme is expected to become effective on 24th February 2014, with the cash element issued to customers on or around 4th March 2014.
You have the option of:
Option 1: C Share Payment and Retain Verizon Shares (Default Option where W8 Series is received)
Option 2: C Share Payment and Sell Verizon Shares (Default Option where no W8 Series received).
Option 3: B Share Payment and Retain Verizon Shares
Option 4: B Share Payment and Sell Verizon Shares
The default option will apply to all holders whose instructions are not received by the deadline.