VEREIT (ex American Realty Capital Properties) : immobilier triple net aux USA…

Le jeu de la semaine avait volontairement pour but de montrer à quel point ARCP décote par rapport à ses pairs, alors même que c’est la plus grosse capitalisation de toute :

ToutVaBien a écrit :

Le management annonce un 2014 AFFO entre 1.13$ et 1.19$ (source: American Realty Capital Properties Announces Record First Quarter 2014 Operating Results)

En considérant un prix de l’action à 12,30$ au 24/5 (source ft.com), cela nous donne un 2014 AFFO yield de (à la date du 24/5):

Estimation basse: 1.13/12.30 = 9.19%
Estimation haute: 1.19/12.30 = 9,67%

Realty Income:
AFFO per share for 2014 should range from $2.53 to $2.58 (source: http://www.realtyincome.com/pdfs/pr/5-1 … nings.pdf)
Prix de l’action au 25 mai 2014: 42.93$
AFFO Yield 2014 low: 5,9%
AFFO Yield 2014 high: 6%

National Retail Properties:
2014 AFFO is estimated to be $2.01 to $2.06 per share (source: http://investors.nnnreit.com/Cache/1001 … ID=103064)
Prix de l’action au 25 mai 2014: 34.39$
AFFO Yield 2014 low: 5,8%
AFFO Yield 2014 high: 6%

Spirit Realty Capital
2014 AFFO guidance in the range of $0.77 to $0.82 per share (source: " rel="ugc nofollow noopener" target="_blank">http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zht … ghlight;
Prix de l’action au 25 mai 2014: 11.29$
AFFO Yield 2014 low: 6,8%
AFFO Yield 2014 high: 7,3%

Getty Realty
AFFO 2013: 1.33$ (source: http://gettyrealty.com/sites/default/fi … R3414.pdf)
Prix de l’action au 25 mai 2014: 19.43$
AFFO Yield 2014 low: 5,9%
AFFO Yield 2014 high: 6%

Yann a écrit :

ARCP annonce pour 2014 un AFFO entre $1.13 et $1.19 par action. Au 23/05/2014, le cours de bourse est à $12,3.

AFFO Yield = (AFFO) / (cours de bourse)
AFFO Yield low = 1,13 / 12,3 = 9,18 %
AFFO Yield high = 1,19 / 12,3 = 9,67 %

Realty Income :
AFFO Yield 2014 = 5,96%
(Cours de bourse au 23/05:2014 : $42,93 / AFFO Q1/2014 = $0,64)

National Retail Properties:
AFFO Yield 2014 = 5,93%
(Cours de bourse au 23/05:2014 : $34,39 / AFFO Q1/2014 = $0,51)

Spirit Realty Capital:
AFFO Yield 2014 = 7,09%
(Cours de bourse au 23/05:2014 : $11,29 / AFFO Q1/2014 = $0,2)

Getty Realty:
AFFO Yield 2013 = 6,85%
(Cours de bourse au 23/05:2014 : $19,43 / AFFO 2013 = $1,31)

La dette d’ARCP est notée BBB-, celle de Realty Income BBB+, celle de National Retail Properties BBB et celle de Spirit Realty Capital BB-.

Donc l’AFFO Yield d’ARCP devrait a priori être entre celui de NNN et Spirit Realty Capital.

laffaton a écrit :

J’essaie de faire le même calcul sur Gladstone Land Corp (LAND:US).
En consultant le rapport annuel (Annual Reports and Proxies - Gladstone Land Corporation), je ne suis pas surde la valeur a prendre pour l’ AFFO.

La société ne publie pas d’AFFO, mais seulement son FFO. Pour des terrains agricoles, on peut supposer les valeurs très proches.

--

Un actionnaire activiste, détenant 2,4% d’ARCP, a envoyé une lettre à un directeur.

Il se plaint de tout ce que nous avons dit ici (émission de titres dilutives imprévus, discours changeant) :

June 2, 2014

Dear Mr. Michelson,

As you know, investment funds managed by Marcato Capital Management LP own approximately 21.8 million shares of American Realty Capital Properties, Inc. ("ARCP" or the "Company"), making us one of the Company’s largest shareholders.  We believe that shares of ARCP trade at a substantial discount to their fair value.  We are writing to express our disappointment over a number of the Company’s recent actions I can also assure you that, having spoken with numerous other shareholders, this disappointment is echoed by many and to remind you and your fellow Board members of your duty to represent the interests of your existing shareholders and to urge that you exercise appropriate authority and oversight to prevent any further value destroying activity.

Recent Equity Issuance

We were extremely frustrated by the Company’s recent equity issuance at $12 per share.  We found it disturbing that the Company would issue equity after repeatedly stating publicly that it had no intention to do so, and at a price that it has repeatedly acknowledged undervalues the shares.   Management could not have been clearer about this point on recent conference calls:

"As we’ve said before, we’re certainly not comfortable selling equity at $14 and we haven’t. We said we weren’t going to sell equity at $13 and we didn’t. We said we weren’t going to sell equity no matter what anybody said at $12, and people were saying we’re coming to the market for equity, we didn’t." (Nicholas Schorsch, ARCP CEO, Q4 2013 Earnings Call, 2/27/14)

"But to be clear, we’re not anxious to issue stock at $12 and whatever it is at the moment, or $13 or $13.5 a share. We think we’re way undervalued, and we think our currency is not being fairly viewed." (Nicholas Schorsch, ARCP CEO, Q1 2014 Earnings Call, 5/8/2014)

In spite of these unambiguous statements, the Company not only went out to issue equity at $12 per share on May 21st, but subsequently upsized the equity offering by 20% to approximately $1.7 billion before expenses, belying yet another statement management had made less than three months prior:

"So right now, if you look at our business plan, we’ve got a modest equity raise plan&which has about $600 million to $700 million equity component. And that equity component could be lessened, not increased, based on what we end up doing with multi-tenant portfolio." (Nicholas Schorsch, ARCP CEO, Q4 2013 Earnings Call, 2/27/14)

After agreeing to sell its multi-tenant retail portfolio to Blackstone for approximately $2 billion, the Company definitively did not need to do an equity offering of any kind, let alone an offering 2.5x the size of what it had previously articulated.  Such willingness to destroy shareholder value, by issuing shares at an acknowledged discount to fair value, illustrates a disregard for existing shareholders that we find very problematic.  Furthermore, the decision to then upsize the offering by more than 20% even after being loudly criticized by shareholders on the morning call of the offering was an additional slap in the face.

Too Many Transactions Too Fast

ARCP’s rapid acquisitions of CapLease (LSE), ARCT IV, and Cole, followed by the recent purchase of the Red Lobster portfolio, sale of the multi-tenant retail portfolio, and equity issuance, have made the Company’s financials complicated and difficult to understand.  So many moving pieces make the Company challenging for investors and analysts to model.  Indeed, we believe the best evidence of this is that the Company itself seemingly cannot keep its own financials straight.  On May 20th, in an 8-K filing in which it attempted to show its Pro Forma first quarter financial statements, the Company used an inaccurate share count; as a result, it was forced to file an amendment telling the market to disregard the previous filing, and a subsequent 8-K with new Pro Forma financials.  ARCP’s shares sold off on news of the inaccurate 8-K, and have yet to substantially recover.  We have spent many hours going through ARCP’s numbers both on our own and with the Company, and are consequently comfortable with the Company’s forward guidance.  However, it is our view that a large part of the reason the share price has not recovered is due to widespread confusion, concern, and doubt about the Company’s numbers.

It certainly did not help that the Company then made another mistake in its filings.  In the prospectus for its recent equity issuance, the Company stated the fees associated with the Red Lobster transaction were $108 million.  On May 29th, the Company put out an 8-K disclosing that the fees were actually $10.8 million, and it had initially overstated the figure by a factor of 10.  While we are relieved to know that the Company did not spend $108 million in fees to close a $1.5 billion portfolio acquisition, we are alarmed by what appear to be disorderly financial controls exposed by the Company’s second material disclosure error in as many weeks.

We believe the existence of these errors is symptomatic of the larger problem: The Company is engaging in too many transformative transactions too quickly.  ARCP should pause on large-scale transaction activity and give investors a chance to see multiple quarters of clean financial results.  Build credibility by letting investors see that the Company’s Pro Forma clean financials are consistent with management’s guidance, and the market will be obligated to reward the strength of ARCP’s asset portfolio and platform with a higher share price.  Pausing today and allowing ARCP’s share price to approach fair value is the best way to enable value-enhancing acquisition activity over the medium and long-term.

In our opinion, the sum of all of these recent actions has undermined management’s credibility in the capital markets.  We hope that, by writing this letter to share our views with the Board, other investors will feel emboldened to voice their similar frustrations with management and the Board.  ARCP has a strong platform and an attractive, diverse asset portfolio with superior scale and credit quality.  The Company needs to pause on large-scale transactions and rebuild its credibility the only way it can: by solidly executing its organic operations for an extended period of time.  If it can do this, and give investors a chance to see what the Pro Forma entity actually looks like, we believe it is only a matter of time until the market rewards ARCP.  If, however, the Board and management continue to contradict their own statements, disregard the interests of existing shareholders by issuing equity at an acknowledged unfair price, and commit multiple reporting and disclosure errors, then we will have no choice but to consider actions that are necessary to protect our investment.

Sincerely,

/s/ Richard T. McGuire

Managing Partner
Marcato Capital Management LP

For further information, contact:

Marcato Capital Management LP
Nichole Peterson
(415) 796-6354

SOURCE Marcato Capital Management LP

Source : http://seekingalpha.com/pr/10099593-mar … properties

American Realty Capital’s (ARCP +0.7%) Nick Schorsch: "[The company] is currently ready, locked, and loaded" to close $3.3B in acquisitions by the end of the month.

Présentation à la NAREIT’s REIT week underway

Dernière modification par Miguel (03/06/2014 20h32)

Et d’ailleurs suite a ça un article tres intéressant sur seeking alpha d’un investisseur qui a assiste a la conf :

What’s The Magic That Moves ARCP?

J’ai retenue mes précédentes leçons, "on n’attrape pas un couteau qui tombe".
Je vais patienter et suivre cette file.

A quel moment sait-on que le couteau a arrêté de tomber? Quand le cours se met à remonter? Mais après quel % de hausse?

Ma question n’en était pas vraiment une en fait! C’était justement pour s’interroger sur la difficulté d’identifier un point bas sur une valeur.

On ne peut pas savoir si la baisse est passagère, ce sont les vicissitudes des marchés boursiers, c’est pourquoi l’assertion commune "on n’attrape pas un couteau qui tombe" est absurde de mon point de vue.

Par contre, on peut se demander combien vaut ARCP ou quel est son multiple de valorisation par rapport à ses pairs, comme dans le message plus haut.

Il est devenu difficile de prévoir le FFO d’ARCP, car après le sale & lease back Red Lobster, nous avons un locataire, présentant des difficultés opérationnelles, représentant un énorme 12,2% des loyers.

D’autre part, cela fait 3 fois que les dirigeants font le contraire de ce qu’ils annoncent.

Ces incertitudes rendent difficile l’exercice de valorisation, mais ce qui est sûr, c’est qu’à cet instant t, si le portefeuille d’actifs est stabilisé et que Red Lobster ne nous fait pas de soucis, ARCP est fortement décotée et donc une grosse opportunité.

L’avenir dira si mes 145 k€ ont été bien investis.

Zacks vient de dégrader son appréciation de ARCP :

Zacks lowered shares of American Realty Capital Properties (NASDAQ:ARCP) from a neutral rating to an underperform rating in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday morning. Zacks currently has $11.70 price objective on the stock

Hedge fund investis dans ARCP au 31/03/2014 :


Mais bon, cela n’est pas vraiment significatif, pour toute actions, nous trouvons une liste de hedge funds investis et les montants en jeux restent faibles eu égard de la capitalisation boursière d’ARCP.

Quand même :

David Simon’s Twin Capital returned around 17.5% annually between 1995 and 2013. It had only one down year: 2002. Twin Capital had $700 million in AUM in early 2014.

J’ai quand même l’impression qu’ARCP est une pétite en cours de façonnage. Suffit que les dirigeants éclaircissent leurs visions et digèrent ces récentes acquisitions et on aura un potentiel assez important d’upside doublé d’un rendement extrêmemement atractif.

Au cours actuel, un peu mois de 12$, ça me semble être une opportunité.

Peut être fallait-il rattraper le couteau qui tombe

Bien content d’en avoir acheté quand c’est descendu en-dessous de 12$