En préambule, un lien intéressant vers un article et une vidéo expliquant l’intérêt pour les sociétés de proposer un abonnement à leurs consos.
Pourquoi Uber et Apple misent sur le modèle Netflix pour séduire les consommateurs - Decode Media
A l’ouverture, le titre lache 15% à moins de 10$/action. On tombe à 120M$ de VE – je prends en compte l’immobilier pour 30M$ et leur participation de 10M$ dans la société de retargeting.
Ce qui est clair, c’est que la croissance des abonnés a fortement ralenti, à un taux annualisé de +/- 30%, le nouvel objectif du management. En lisant le confcall on se : dit pourquoi pas ? ; tout ce qui est dit semble réfléchi et vise à priori à favoriser l’actionnaire sur le long terme.
En revanche, je trouve dommage de découvrir un changement de stratégie aussi important lors de l’annonce des résultats. Je trouve que le management a clairement manqué de transparence, et c’est ce qui me dérange le plus.
Si on raisonne en terme de prix, ca semble pas très cher si le management atteint les objectifs qu’il s’est fixé, dans le cas contraire c’est plus difficile à dire.
Morceaux choisis -dans le désordre et réecrit pour une meilleure lecture- de la confcall.
“After Q3 2018 confcall, the high-growth companies took a big hit and there is now more focus on capital and cash flows. We heard it from a lot of our shareholders, so we were evaluating what will bring the shareholder value overall : do we go faster or do we keep the cash and be safer ? We decided to keep the cash.”
“Early in the fast growth period, the marketing was important to us more because we felt like we needed to get scale. First, we accomplished our growth, at the same time, there were no really new meaningful entrances to our space. So the growth is not of strategically importance anymore. We’ll shift spend to content, but we are going to moderate it with revenue growth. Our goal, as we always said in the future, is to have roughly the amortizations similar to what we spend on the content, but this maybe still couple of years.”
“Based on this, we decided to increase our LTV ratio from 2:1 to 3:1, as I mentioned, and decided to raise the price of our monthly subscription.”
“We now focus to further increase this LTV CPA ratio to 3.5:1. We want to keep growing our gross profit for per employee ratio, which in the fourth quarter was $322,000, up 33% from $242,000 a year ago. And additionally, we want to transition to positive EBITDA by end of this September”
“Adjusting for a one-time change in the way that we treat people that are in payment decline process, we are expecting to report around 560,000 paying subscribers at q1 2019. If you think about on average with over 0.5 million subscribers, the majority of which are on monthly plans. The industry decline rate is about 3%. So, you can kind of do the math on how big of a member base we have to see what the impact of the total population is there, but it’s somewhere in the low 10,000 member one-time adjustment there.”
“we actually intend to discontinue and then sell the DVD legacy business”
“since the organic is growing as a percentage, by slowing the growth, obviously, the percentage of organic will increase pretty meaningfully. That’s a big part from lowering our cost of acquisition.”
“Once we get EBITDA profitable, we intend to stay there. We’ll have the benefit of all of the subscribers that we added in the first half of the year at the $11.99 continuing to build as a percentage of the overall number, which will help average revenue per user into Q4. But then also by the way that we’re building out these organic channels, it’s not going to be it by paid media predominantly.“
“About capex for 2019.
I think one of the things that is one-time for this year that’s somewhat masked into that CapEx spending is the improvements that we’ve made to the campus, about 8M$ invested, that won’t recur from a cash use perspective and that ends in Q1 2019.
But the intent would be to look at tying our media library investments to our revenue growth and continue to focus on building that. Now that we’ve gotten through the peak growth phase from a marketing dollar perspective, we would intend to invest some of that incremental margin back into the media library to help with retention efforts.”
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1 #126 09/01/2019 22h09
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