Obligations high yield émergents…

Bonjour à tous,

Effectivement l’idée est de viser la baisse des taux.
Certains fonds obligataires à échéances ont déjà une belle performance et j’essaye tant bien que mal de trouver l’équivalent en ETF.

J’ai quand même l’impression que les ETF obligataires sous performent plus facilement les fonds (c’est beaucoup moins le cas pour les ETF actions).

Sissi pourriez-vous partager votre allocation d’etf obligataires ?

Je note pour VEMT !

Oblible, le 21/12/2023 a écrit :

Après la Zambie, le Suriname, le Liban et le Sri Lanka, voici que le Tchad, le Ghana et le Nigeria se mettent aussi à restructurer leurs dettes

Les prochains sur la liste pourraient être les Bahamas, la Tunisie, la Turquie, El Salvador …

Les Maldives vont bientôt rejoindre le club des pays en défaut ?

Maldives Braces for Austerity to Avert Debt Crisis – The Diplomat

To avoid defaulting on creditors, the Maldives needs more than $500 million annually to pay down debt in both 2024 and 2025, rising to a staggering $1.07 billion in 2026, a figure that eclipses the country’s gross foreign currency reserve of $492 million in May.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/s … 29-08-2024

Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 29 Aug 2024: Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Maldives’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ’CC’ from ’CCC+’. Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a rating of ’CCC+’ or below.

Oblible, le 11/04/2024 a écrit :

Oblible, le 22/12/2023 a écrit :

Si vous êtes téméraire, il y a les obligations d’El Salvador sur IB où je détiens celles-ci :

USP01012AT38    El Salvador    6.375%    USD
USP01012BX31    El Salvador    8.625%    USD
XS0146173371    El Salvador    8.25%    USD
US283875BW13    El Salvador    8.625%    USD
USP01012AN67    El Salvador    7.65%    USD

El Salvador va beaucoup mieux depuis que le jeune président a fait adopter le BTC comme monnaie nationale et éradiqué les gangs.

Le cours des obligations a fortement augmenté et le pays propose désormais un rachat anticipé à 91% du nominal.

Je garde bien sûr ces obligations et ne participerai pas à l’offre, le pays étant devenu plus stable et plus bankable.

ELSALV 8 5/8 02/28/29
ISIN US283875BW13
Option 2 - Tender notes for cash: 910.00 USD + Accrued Interest per 1,000 Principal Amount tendered and accepted

ELSALV 8 5/8 02/28/29
ISIN USP01012BX31
Option 2 - Tender notes for cash: 910.00 USD + Accrued Interest per 1,000 Principal Amount tendered and accepted

ELSALV 6 3/8 01/18/27
ISIN USP01012AT38
Option 2 - Tender notes for cash: 910.00 USD + Accrued Interest per 1,000 Principal Amount tendered and accepted

El Salvador fait maintenant une offre de rachat beaucoup plus intéressante mais je n’y participerai pas, ça reste un bon rendement pour un pays qui va beaucoup mieux économiquement.

ELSALV 6 3/8 01/18/27
ISIN : USP01012AT38

Tender notes for cash: 980.00 USD + Accrued Interest per 1,000 Principal Amount tendered and accepted

ELSALV 8 5/8 02/28/29
ISIN : US283875BW13

Tender notes for cash: 1,000 USD + Accrued Interest per 1,000 Principal Amount tendered and accepted

ELSALV 7.65 06/15/35
ISIN : USP01012AN67

Tender notes for cash: 898.50 USD + Accrued Interest per 1,000 Principal Amount tendered and accepted

ELSALV 8 5/8 02/28/29
ISIN : USP01012BX31

Tender notes for cash: 1,000 USD + Accrued Interest per 1,000 Principal Amount tendered and accepted

Morgan Stanley research ( je ne peux pas copier/coller)

Anleihenboard - Anmelden
inscription gratuite …

Hedge Fund With Top EM Rank Sees More Distressed Debt Gains

(Bloomberg) -- A distressed-debt rally driving gains in high-yield funds still has room to run in countries as diverse as Argentina and Ukraine, according to the hedge fund with the one of the best performances in the asset class.

Junk-rated emerging-market dollar debt has returned more than 13% this year — with most of the top sovereign bond performers in distressed and defaulted credits — namely Argentina, Ecuador, Lebanon and Ukraine, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Hedge Fund With Top EM Rank Sees More Distressed Debt Gains ? BNN Bloomberg

Morgan STANLEY EM SOV CREDIT OULOOK (attached)

Our view today remains neutral as the market adjusts to the new outlook, largely via initial moves higher in UST yields and EM FX weakness to better price the anticipated tariffs.
• Yet as these reverse into early 2025, or even earlier, we expect to see better entry points to position for a positive 2025 as whole.
• We see room for EM credit spreads to tighten to 300bp by the middle of the year before reversing slightly to 325bp by the end of the year as they fail to keep up with lower UST yields and US credit spreads that also widen marginally. We see total returns ending at 14% from today until end-2025.
• Sovereigns we like: Abu Dhabi, Argentina, Colombia, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Morocco and Zambia.
• Sovereigns we dislike: Bahrain, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Qatar and Senegal

Anleihenboard - Anmelden