Select Income REIT : une autre foncière triple net décotée ?

Pour compléter les files sur Lexington Realty Trust, Realty Income, VEREIT et WP Carey voici Select Income REIT.

Son cours a bien baissé ($19 actuellement alors qu’elle cotait $30 en 2014) et son rendement sur dividende (trimestriel) dépasse les 10%.

Select REIT est la plus petite de toutes les foncières pré-citées, mais capitalise encore $1,6 Md.

Je ne la connais pas bien, mais voici un avis de RBC Capital Markets qui vous mettra l’eau à la bouche, puisque le cabinet valorise la foncière à $30 et considère que le cours actuel est une "énigme" :

RBC Capital Markets a écrit :

Select Income REIT Very high dividend yield appears safe; Raising estimates; Target remains $31

Our view: The price of SIR shares is an enigma to us. The very high dividend yield is supported by a modest payout ratio and an affirmation from management today that there is no consideration currently for a change to dividend policy. Similarly, our detailed valuation below suggests a $30.43 NAV/share. As a result, we remain very positive on this name.

Key points:

• Post the large CCIT transaction, SIR appears in even better shape than we had anticipated. The company’s operating metrics are healthy, portfolio composition metrics are sound, and the diversification brought on by the CCIT acquisition is a major positive.

• While current portfolio metrics are solid, the existing assets are only part of the story. The difficulty for SIR lies in its ability to complete future acquisitions. Management indicated on the call today that the company could complete another $300 million of acquisitions before reaching its mid-50% debt/book capitalization level. In fact, we believe the company could comfortably complete acquisitions in its current pipeline along with another $100 million/quarter through 2016 and reach only 56.2% debt/ book cap. Similarly debt/EBITDA would rise only modestly to 7.1x from 6.7x currently under our scenario.

• Our acquisition assumptions include the sale of $200 million of assets over the same time frame through YE16. Management indicated that $100 million of assets should sell this year with the potential for additional sales to occur in 2016. Management also indicated that asset sales will be the only source of additional equity funding near term as both a common share issuance and a reduction of the dividend are not under consideration.

• Management would not provide a stock price at which the company might be more constructive on issuing shares, but we suspect it is at least in the mid $20 range. At the same time, the company’s dividend payout ratio was only 83.7% of FAD in 2Q15 and drops to an estimated 78.8% at YE16 with a 5% dividend increase modeled into our 2016 numbers.

• Importantly, though acquisitions may slow if the stock price does not increase, we believe that the company needs no additional acquisitions to make these shares a compelling buy. The dividend yield of 9.8% alone seems compelling enough to us.

• Following the strong 2Q15 results, we have increased our 2015 and 2016 FFO/share estimates to $2.83 and $2.99 from $2.75 and $2.85 previously. We have trimmed our NAV/share estimate modestly to $30.43 from $31.04 at a 6.85% cap rate. Details of our NAV and cap rate calculation are provided below. Based on our NAV/share estimate, our price target for these shares remains $31. At that target, the dividend yield on these shares would be approximately 6.5% which would be near the high end of the triple net sector.

--

EDIT : après recherche rapide, il s’avère que Select Income REIT a sa gestion externalisée auprès de la société Reit Management & Research, dont la gouvernance est notoirement discutable (euphémisme) dans plusieurs foncières dont elle a la charge.

De fait, sans même se renseigner plus, cela justifie une forte décote sur la NAV et enlève en ce qui me concerne tout intérêt au dossier.

Mots-clés : décoté, select income reit, triple net