Centrica : un distributeur de gaz UK qui se développe vers l'upstream

PavelK a écrit :

IMHO une petite expo sur Centrica est justifiée à ce prix.
Par contre je ne comprends pas pourquoi si le secteur est tellement pourri (ce qu’est vrai ajd) sociétés comme NG s’en sortent mieux. NG est exposé aux US, c’est la seule raison?

Ce n’est pas strictement le même secteur.

Il faut distinguer les producteurs d’électricité/gaz vs les distributeurs d’électricité/gaz.

Il n’y a pas de concurrence sur la distribution, juste de la régulation. Mais le rapport de force est plus équilibré avec les régulateurs, car les distributeurs d’électricité doivent avoir les ressources financières nécessaires au développement et au bon fonctionnement du réseau.

National Grid et Red Electrica (Espagne) sont des distributeurs.

Je pense comme vous Philippe, un vrai boulet cette action, pire que du GDF.
Je pensais que la nouvelle réduction du dividende était déjà dans les cours.
Bravo à Ledep qui a eu le courage de s’enfuir en début d’année.
La bonne nouvelle c’est le départ du PDG.
La société va peut-être commencer à s’intéresser à ses clients.

Déontologie : je détiens une position acheteuse/vendeuse sur une ou plusieurs société(s) listée(s) dans ce message.

Suis-je le seul à me demander si un dernier renforcement reste intéressant ? Même avec toutes ces baisses, le rendement est autour de 7%.

J’ai du mal à encaisser ma perte, mais je ne vois pas le titre descendre éternellement non plus.

On peut très bien imaginer une suppression totale du dividende, le dernier CEO a bien plombé la boîte. Voire une augmentation de capital dilutive si la situation s’aggrave. Mais on peut aussi envisager qu’une nouvelle direction prenne le taureau par les cornes, la société est quand même le leader et a de beaux actifs.

Peter Lynch a écrit sur ce genre de cas et voici une synthèse:

In the book “Beating The Street,” Peter Lynch has a very good discussion on the business cycle of the utilities business and how to invest successfully on them. The main attraction on buying utilities is on their yield, their consistent dividend they pay out. For any investors who prefer current income, utility stock has been more profitable over the long term than buying CDs from the bank. For Peter Lynch, he considered utility stock as interest-rate cyclicals, and he would try to time the entrances and exits for utility stock investments. He would put 10% of Magellan, the fund he worked for, into the utility field when the interest rate was declining and the economy was in a sputter.

He had good results with utilities investing with Magellan, especially with the troubled ones. As utility was regulated by the government, a utility might face bankruptcy and eliminate its dividend, but as long as people need electricity, people must find the way for the utility to continue to function. At times, a utility business might face difficulties ranging from macro events to operating inefficiencies to legal issues, and the existing shareholders would experience the free fall in its stock price. However, if they sold out in the panic too soon, they would missed the quadruple or quintuple rebound when the business survived from the difficulties and began to prosper.

Any investors should realize that there are four main stages in so called “troubled utility cycle” in order to do right timing entrance and exit for those types of investments. The first stage is disaster strikes. It is faced with a sudden loss in earnings, either because of some huge cost which it could not pass through to its customers, or because a huge asset (such as a new plant) is “mothballed and removed from the rate base.” Its stock would lose around 40%-80% of its value in one or two year period. As investors experienced the drop in the share price, they would no longer felt the utilities as a safe and stable investment. The price keeps falling, and it might trade as low as 20-30% of the book value. The time to stay at that low market depends on each disaster. Lynch cited that in the Long Island Lighting case, the bankruptcy threat made the stock at 30% of its book value for four years.

The second stage is “crisis management.” A utility business would respond to its disaster by cutting capital expenditure and adopting austerity budget. Normally in this period, the dividend would be eliminated in order to bring strength back to its financial structure. At this stage, there would be no reflection on its stock price yet.

After that, the business would come to “financial stabilization.” When it had succeeded in cutting cost, the utility begin to generate enough cash for its own operation. Although it might not earn anything for the shareholders at this stage yet, survival was almost the certainty. The stock price of this period might move up to 60-70% of the book value.

Last but not least, the stage four is that the recovery is recognized. The utility business is capable of earning something for its shareholders, and Wall Street begins to expect improved earnings and the continuation of its dividend. The price of its stock moves up to its book value. So what would happen afterwards? He noted: “How things progress from here depends on two factors: (1) the reception from the capital markets, because without capital the utility cannot expand its rate base, and (2), the support, or nonsupport, of the regulators, i.e, how many costs they allow the utility to pass along to customers in the form of higher rates.”

When recognizing the utilities pattern, employing the good strategy to reap the benefits from investing in utilities is not an issue anymore. Lynch advised people to buy on the omission of the dividend and wait for the good news or investors could wait for the good news to come in the second stage, and then buy the stock. Even when the stock has doubled, a lot of people might think they have missed the bottom, but troubled utilities have a long way to go. “A simple way to make a nice living from troubled utilities: buy them when a dividend is omitted and hold on to them until the dividend is restored. This is the strategy with terrific success ratio.”

Peter Lynch ? A Simple Way to Benefit from Utility Investments - GuruFocus.com

Déontologie : je détiens une position acheteuse/vendeuse sur une ou plusieurs société(s) listée(s) dans ce message.

Bonjour,

Je me suis positionnée sur Centrica Plc il y a peu (mais avant la dernière dégringolade) car je pensais que sa particularité (production de pétrole et de gaz) pouvait faire la différence.

Aujourd’hui je suis à -30% sur une position plutôt modeste. J’ai décidé de conserver car le rendement reste dans mes objectifs tout en me disant tout de même que le gros point noir est la perte de la particularité citée plus haut.

Etant également assez débutante, et comme c’est ma première mauvaise surprise, je conserve afin de suivre ce que la société va mettre en place pour redresser la barre (ça me permettra aussi d’en apprendre un peu plus sur le secteur). Par contre je ne prévois pas de renforcer: j’attends pour ça d’être convaincue par les prochains changements de la direction.

Déontologie : je détiens une position acheteuse/vendeuse sur une ou plusieurs société(s) listée(s) dans ce message.

Quelle catastrophe, j’ose à peine relire mon dernier message.

Une slide vaut mieux que 50 justifications :

Déontologie : je détiens une position acheteuse/vendeuse sur une ou plusieurs société(s) listée(s) dans ce message.

Des news de Centrica

STRONG H1 OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE AND POSITIVE OUTLOOK

centrica-2022-interim-results-announcement-2022.pdf

-Adjusted basic EPS of 11.0p (2021: 1.7p); 10.2p excluding Spirit Energy disposed assets.
-Strong Upstream volumes against a backdrop of higher commodity prices.
-Increased commodity volatility handled well in Energy Marketing & Trading.
-Statutory basic EPS loss of 14.7p (2021: profit of 23.2p) includes a £1.9bn loss on net remeasurements after taxation, reflecting the high commodity price environment.
-Group total free cash flow from continuing operations of £643m (2021: £524m).
-Statutory net cash flow from operating activities of £165m (2021: £558m) including margin cash outflow of £519m.
-2022 full year outlook remains positive.



On remonte la pente graphiquement



Un Ev/Ebitda a 2.79
ROE = 35%
Perf 6 mois = +24%
Roic = +10%

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