Amérique latine : obligations et autres placements en Amérique latine…

LATAM et Lufthansa suspendent leurs vols vers le Venezuela, le pays va bientôt se retrouver coupé du monde ?
Le Venezuela bientôt coupé du monde ? | ARTE Info

Heureusement que le PRCF, lui y croit encore :
VENEZUELA : Oui ! au sursaut bolivarien lancé par Maduro ! (PRCF - Communistes)

"VENEZUELA : soutien du PRCF au sursaut bolivarien lancé par Maduro"
Il est évident que le PRCF est 100% aux côtés de ceux qui refusent la destitution de Maduro, dont l’éviction ouvrirait une phase de fascisation aiguë au Venezuela tout en détruisant l’ALBA et en isolant Cuba socialiste.

L’IMPERIALISME sanctionne économiquement tous les pays du refus à se mettre à ses genoux - JO -  BELLACIAO

Elle a assuré qu’il existe une « conflagration » des différents pouvoirs de certains centres diplomatiques, de la droite mondiale et des médias « contre le Venezuela et contre ses autorités légitimes ».

Les résultats sont encourageants malgré le phénomène El nino qui doit expliquer la baisse des ventes (stock en baisse par conséquent moins de produits récoltés sans doute). La diversification vers les produits à plus fortes marges permet de compenser cette baisse. Dommage qu’il soit difficile de s’en procurer.

La 2021 (ISIN USP19189AC69) cote vers les 86.5%

Zebonder sur le Venezuela je suppose que vous ne croyez pas trop aux deux derniers articles mais que vous vouliez nous prévenir contre la propagande du régime ?

Pour un éclairage équilibré sur la catastrophique révolution bolivarienne une émission aujourd’hui sur France Culture à partir de 11h20 : Cultures Monde de Florian Delorme. Ils y exposent en particulier un élément qui manquait à ma bonne compréhension : l’argent du pétrole va directement à l’armée grâce à laquelle Maduro arrive à se maintenir.

Je tentais de voir sur la FINRA (je rappelle que tout acheteur de "contrats" US la paye et a donc tout à fait le droit d’en user) le comportement des bonos venezolanos souverains mais sans succès. Quant aux PDVSA les maturités les plus proches (2017) sont proches des 66%, ce qui me paraît déjà très cher pour un investisseur prudent. Y a-t-il ici un aventurier bonista qui détiendrait encore des obligs du pays et pourrait en témoigner ?

Les résultats d’Odebrecht sont sortis hier - je n’ai pas les détails seulement les commentaires dans la presse - pour l’instant
Odebrecht 7.5% perp est remontee a 47.50 de 42 jeudi et 37 il y a une semaine …

Brazil?s Biggest Builder Boosts Sales Even With Top Boss in Jail - Bloomberg
Lucro líquido da Odebrecht Engenharia e Construção cai 51% em 2015 - ISTOÉ DINHEIRO

Odebrecht Engineering and Construction (OEC) said it ended the year 2015 with net income of R $ 890 million, a decrease of 51% compared to 2014. The result reflects increase of 58% in its gross debt to R $ 13.98 billion, while net debt was R $ 4 billion, on a balance of availability of R $ 9.9 billion.

According to the press office of the OEC, the audited financial statement will be published in newspapers in the coming days. The release of the numbers is one month overdue, which led the company’s bonds to fall outside in early May.

The release issued on Friday, 3 also shows that cash when measured in US dollars, fell 43% in 2015 to $ 2.5 billion from $ 4.4 billion at the end of 2014. The OEC explains that, given its size and the fact that works with clients in advance, uses its full cash in its operations.

Gross revenue rose 75% to R $ 57.954 billion in 2015 compared to the previous year. The OEC says that 87% of this revenue comes from international operations, with revenues in dollars. The amount is at the same time impacted mainly by the real depreciation of almost 50% in 2015 and by hyperinflation of 180.9% in Venezuela. Normalizing these two effects, gross revenue was in line with 2014.

EBITDA (earnings before interest payments, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was R $ 5.8 billion, backed in 161 contracts running in the 18 countries the company operates, the release says. The OEC informs that approximately R $ 13 billion of overseas revenues generated are from Latin America, which recorded strong revenue growth in Mexico, Peru and the Dominican Republic. The rest is related to the works in Africa and to a lesser extent, Portugal and the United Arab Emirates.

The developer notes that, since 2011, Brazil’s share in total revenue has been reduced from 45% recorded in that year to 13% in 2015 due to the decline in economic activity in the country. In 2015, the project portfolio of OEC closed year at US $ 28.1 billion. International contracts represent 79% of the portfolio, while the Brazil account for 21% - with the share of private works accounts for 85%.

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A noter que les "géants" achètent massivement des obligations sud-américaines - meme des brésiliennes
Latin America?s Wall Street Veterans Draw Biggest Bond Funds - Bloomberg

Dernière modification par sissi (04/06/2016 07h07)

Sat

De ce que j’ai lu il y avait désaccord entre la boite et leur experts-comptables sur l’impact financier du Lava Jato…. impossible a chiffrer a ce point-ci d’apres O…. puisque le montant de "punition" n’est pas connu - a voir aussi si ce montant sera etale sur 12 ans comme pour les autres…
J’imagine que ça se reflétera sur 2016 etc
Les obligations de Andrade Guiterrez aussi sont remontées d’un coup apres l’annonce de règlement…

Vu que la boite vend des assetts ou des participations partielles je m’attends a ce que ça renfloue les caisses mais surtout leur permette de repousser l’échéance de leurs prêts bancaires pour s’ajuster au flux de leur business… et faire face aux difficultés que la baisse de réputation a engrangee

Nos copains du board allemand ont acheté ces derniers jours … ici je ne pense pas que quelqu’un s’y risque … ou je me trompe?

sissi a écrit :

Sat
…/… ici je ne pense pas que quelqu’un s’y risque … ou je me trompe?

J’ai été tenté -- mais je me suis ravisé.

Plus d’infos sur le conference call de vendredi passe de Odebrecht grace au forum allemand: plutôt positif …

On Friday, Odebrecht Engenharia (previously Construtora Norberto Odebrecht or CNO) held its conference call to discuss its much-anticipated 2015 (and 4Q15 results).

The tone and content were outright bullish with some pragmatism regarding the outlook for the first semester of this year as I will discuss below.

First of all, as I told you last week, the company’s performance was surprisingly strong (at least to me) with substantial increases in revenues and EBITDA and relatively stable cash and debt figures. But naturally, aside from the results, there was strong interest to hear what the company had to say regarding the recent events that have plagued CNO and that have generated an unusual amount of headlines that made more than one “a bit nervous” (to put it mildly).

Having said that, what is also a fact is that as of the past two weeks or so, headlines have been positive and we have seen a substantial recovery in bond prices mainly as a result of a larger number of investors coming to the realization that things are not (and perhaps never were) as bad as the media pretended them to appear.

All of this was confirmed during the call where management stated the following points:

1.- While the company cannot comment on timing or details (because of confidentiality legal requirements), the process of formalizing and finalizing a leniency agreement with the authorities is under way. This is consistent with the auditors’ qualification of the financial statements as PWC said that there are not enough elements to gauge the financial size and terms of whatever resolution is achieved in terms of possible fines and damages. Still, the fact that the resolution seems to be around the corner is nothing short of encouraging.

2.- Commenting on the financial results, Odebrecht stated that despite some project sales, during 4Q15 some $10 billion in new projects were added to backlog, which now has an average life of around 4.9 years, in line with historical parameters. Total backlog was some $2 billion lower than the previous quarter mainly due to the completion of certain projects and the transfer/sale/withdrawal of others. Still, at around $28 billion, I see this backlog remaining consistently strong.

2.a.- One of the reasons why backlog has not increased is that although the company HAS A NJUMBNER OF PROJECTS ALREADY AWARDED AND SIGNED, these are awaiting financing/funding, something that should happen shortly after the Lava Jato resolution takes place in the near future.

3.- Going forward, the company sees a relatively soft 1Q and 2Q16 in terms of revenues and additions; further, ODBR said that the cash balance at the end of March was around $2.0 billion, half a billion lower than at the end of 2015; and that there may be further cash burn in 2Q16 as well. HOWEVER, the company also said that it is seeing a much stronger SECOND HALF and that it expects to close the year (2016) with cash of around $2.5 billion; that is, becoming cash flow positive in 2H16 with a “BIG DROP” (their words) in cash burn in 3Q16 and 4Q16.

3.a.- One of the main reasons for the latest cash burn is that some projects (and contracts that would generate payments from clients and disbursements from customers) have been postponed to 2016 from 2015 and this has affected cash flows.

4.- In terms of fresh funding, the company said that they are engaged in conversations with several banks and receiving (very positive feedback” and that they are confident that once the Lava Jato issue is finalized and left behind, there will be ample opportunities to replenish funding. In fact, THE COMPANY EXPECTS TO REPLENISH A SUBSTANTIAL PART OF BACKLOG IN 1!16 with new projects. The second half of 2016, with fresh financing already in place, should result in an even stronger backlog growth.

5.- VERY IMPORTANTLY the company also said that once the above point happens (probably in 2H16) and liquidity conservation is not an issue any longer as new funds will become readily available THE COMPANY COULD ACTUALLY CONSIDER BUYING BACK BONDS IN THE SECONDARY MARKET.

6.- On a specific question by the grandson of my granny (yours truly) the company said that LAZARD WAS HIRED BY THE GROUP AND HAS NO WORKING OR OTHERWISE ACTIONS ongoing with the company (the construction arm); and THAT CNO HAS ABSOLUTELY NO INTENTION TO RESTRUCTURE (and in fact, as stated before, could consider buying back bonds OR tender a portion of them once Lava Jato is behind and liquidity preservation is no longer an issue as fresh funds become available).

7.- The company also said that while it will NOT be releasing 2Q16 results (for practical and timing reasons as it will only report FIRST HALF and FULL YEAR 2016 full financials) they WILL be issuing the main figures sometime this month in order to keep investors informed of the main parameters such as EBITDA, margins, debt and cash, ratios, backlog, and other relevant data.

IN SUM:

I have to say that after the many months of continuous confidence erosion and bond prices drops, I am beginning to feel a bit vindicated.

Most of the catalysts that I had been saying were needed for the recovery of bond prices 9and the return of investors’ confidence) are beginning to take place (the leniency agreement; information on backlog evolution; on cash flow generation; on funding options; on willingness/ability to pay …) and all these catalysts are showing at the very least, the characteristics I was hoping to see and in some cases, even better.

So … I remain bullish on ODBR and also remain aware that although the company warned about a soft first half, bond prices could remain volatile (up when we see progress on the leniency agreement and financing; lower when we get the softer operational and financial results of the first two quarters) BUT at the end of the year we should be looking at a completely different and better situation.

Dernière modification par sissi (06/06/2016 19h17)

Sat

Il me semble qu’il cite les propos d’un analyste - sans indiquer la source… et justement entretemps …quelqu’un lui a demande sa source… a voir …

Avez vous des obligations du Perou?

Moodys a dégradé la note de Camposol

Moody´s rebaja calificación de Camposol a Caa2 | Negocios | Economía | El Comercio Peru

Moody’s downgrades Camposol to Caa2
Moody’s said that Camposol has liquidity problems affecting the management of its short-term debt

From our point of view, these types of operations are a default," the agency said in a statement. Moody’s noted other problems that have Camposol, in addition to debt management.

Moody’s referred to the cash position of the company is 27 million, but they have to deal with short-term debt by $ 36 million in 2017 and another 50 million.

ZeBonder a écrit :

Moodys a dégradé la note de Camposol

Moodys considère l’échange comme un default. Rien de neuf dans leur article, ils ne citent même pas les résultats T1 2016. Comme d’hab, ils ont un train de retard.

Nous sommes d’accord. Les résultats sont en progression, ils ont des actifs pour garantir un éventuel prêt bancaire, il y a un actionnaire qui peut injecter du cash. 50M$ à financer d’ici février, c’est beaucoup plus jouable que 200M$.

Quelqu’un du forum a-t-il essayé d’en acheter?

reinanto54 a écrit :

Nous sommes d’accord. Les résultats sont en progression, ils ont des actifs pour garantir un éventuel prêt bancaire, il y a un actionnaire qui peut injecter du cash. 50M$ à financer d’ici février, c’est beaucoup plus jouable que 200M$.

Quelqu’un du forum a-t-il essayé d’en acheter?

Camposol 2017:
Oui, cf mon msg 578. Le residu de 2017 est trop illiquide.
La nouvelle oblig 2021 ne m’interesse pas vraiment.