Liberty Global : du John Malone en Europe…

Hello,

-5% hier, je n’ai pas trouvé de news particulière, quelqu’un à une info ?

Merci

Une petite explication pour cette baisse qui vaut ce qu’elle vaut :

Les USA font fortement pression sur Theresa May au sujet du Brexit et sont en faveur du maintient dans l’UE du royaume-uni (et de tout les pays d’ailleurs). Donald Trump aura une vision différente de la situation et pourrait être un allié de Theresa May . Vu que le Brexit fait peur aux actionnaires de Liberty(non sans raisons certaines).. tout ce qui le favorise fait chuter l’action .

Pour le moment je trouve que Theresa May est une femme remarquable qui inspire le respect .

Liberty a publié ses résultats 2016

Liberty Global Reports Fiscal 2016 Results

All 2016 Guidance Targets Achieved for LBTY and LiLAC

One Million RGU Additions in 2016, up 20% YoY, incl. 324,000 in Q4

Operating Income of $683 Million in Europe in Q4, up 22% YoY

Q4 Rebased OCF Growth Accelerated to 7.5% in Europe (ex Ziggo)

European Stock Buyback Increased by $1 Billion to $3 Billion for 2017

Partie interessante sur les rachats d’action :

During Q4, we were active with repurchases of both stocks. For Liberty Global Group, we purchased over $450 million of equity at attractive price levels in Q4, ending 2016 with total buybacks of $2 billion. And today, we are announcing a $1 billion increase to our previously planned $2 billion buyback target for our Liberty Global Group equity in 2017. For LiLAC, we initiated a $300 million repurchase program in early November and LiLAC bought over $20 million of stock before year end. The valuation of LiLAC looks very attractive, and we are keen to continue repurchasing stock under this $300 million program."

En recherchant des infos sur Liberty Global car le cours se rapproche de son plus bas en 52 semaines.

Je suis tombé sur le roundtable (du Barron’s) en date du 28 janvier 2017 où Oscar Schafer parle de Liberty Global.

Roundtable Barron’s a écrit :

Schafer: Yes. Mario will like my third pick, Liberty Global [LBTYK], the largest cable TV operator in Europe. [Gabelli recommended Liberty Braves (BATRK) and Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) in last week’s Roundtable issue. Both stocks are part of John Malone’s Liberty Media (LMCA) empire.] Malone has owned cable assets in Europe since the 1980s, but Liberty Global was officially formed in 2005, when he merged his cable assets with UnitedGlobalCom. Since then, Malone has used Liberty to roll up cable assets across the Continent. After a 10-year run of value creation and stock appreciation, Liberty had a rough 18 months, with the stock falling 40% from its high, to $32. While some of the decline is due to currency, several other issues have weighed on the shares.

Such as?

Schafer: Liberty executed a string of complex transactions involving its Latin America assets, which has been a distraction to the company and a nuisance to investors. But these issues are in the past, and the economic interests of this business are now held by several tracking stocks. Liberty has also fallen short of its operating targets in Europe for the past two years. In particular, its subsidiary in the Netherlands, Ziggo, has seen increased competition from KPN. Additionally, Liberty announced a plan to increase its footprint, a move that will depress cash flow for several years.

The stock is widely held by hedge funds, many of which wrongly assumed Liberty would be sold to Vodafone [VOD] by now. We view European cable as an attractive business. The threat from cord-cutting [canceling cable contracts] is minimal, as most video packages in Liberty Global’s market cost only $10-$20 a month.

What is the outlook for growth from here?

Schafer: Liberty has a track record of organic growth, with contributions from increasing penetration and modest price increases. Recently, annual revenue growth slowed to 3%-4% and operating cash flow growth to 4%-5%. Liberty is planning to reaccelerate growth through the build-out, which will add seven million homes by 2018. The biggest piece will be in the U.K., where its Virgin Media subsidiary plans to add four million homes at a cost of $3 billion. Unlevered returns from this project are forecast at more than 30%. Between the build-out and plans to keep operating costs mostly flat, Liberty management has guided investors to expect growth in operating cash flow of 7% to 9% over the next three years. Targets are being met with skepticism, given the company’s recent shortfalls.

Liberty has taken some interesting strategic steps recently. The company just closed on a deal to combine Ziggo with Vodafone’s wireless business in the Netherlands, which will yield lots of synergies and create a more competitive converged offering. It also leaves the door open for a larger deal with Vodafone. Liberty has announced other deals in the past few weeks to acquire a cable system in Poland and Altice’s [ATC.Netherlands] cable business in Belgium.

Even if Liberty falls a little short of its targeted range for operating-cash-flow growth, it will still generate $3 a share of free cash flow in 2019, with elevated capex [capital expenditures]. Assuming a normalized level of capex to revenue, free cash flow could reach $4.25. The business is highly leveraged at five times Ebitda, but the leverage is appropriate for a diversified cable company. We expect Malone to use excess free cash flow to buy back stock.

Do you have a price target for the shares?

Schafer: We value the shares at $55 by the end of this year. Malone could create additional value through acquisitions.

Source : Barron?s 2017 Roundtable, Part 3: 17 Picks From Three Pros - Barron’s (si le lien nécessite une inscription, il faut passer par le moteur de recherche google pour y avoir accès)

En tout cas, je constate l’action a pas mal déçu suite à la baisse de croissance de l’OCF : estimée autrefois à 7.5% pour 2017 et abaissé à 5% suite aux résultats du Q1.
L’entreprise n’est pas particulièrement facile à analyser car le périmètre évolue souvent.

A voir si à 28-30$, cela reste une bonne affaire (la parité ayant favorablement évolué pour un achat côté US) + les Capex important qui pénalisent le FCF à court terme.
De plus, la remontée des taux en Europe n’a pas l’air d’actualité.

D’après Schafer, il estime un FCF de 3$ par action horizon 2019. Et 4.25$ si le capex était normalisé.
Après je ne connais pas le multiple de profit qu’il applique mais il parle de 55$ de valeur par action à fin 2017. Market cap ? Enterprise value ?

Edit : Le roundtable midyear (bilan des positions discutés en janvier 2017) n’est pas accessible mais visiblement le mot clé Liberty Global n’a pas été cité.

Dernière modification par Zera (16/06/2017 12h44)

John Malone s’est allegé sur Liberty Global : SEC : FORM 4

90 000 actions LBTYK à 31.78$ en moyenne.
Soit un peu moins de 3 000 000$, une broutille pour lui.

Mais il lui en reste encore pas mal sous le coude.

Les ventes sont rattachées à la règle 10b5-1.

FORM 4 a écrit :

The trust’s sales were effected pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan adopted by the Reporting Person as trustee of the trust on June 23, 2017

Rule 10b5-1 is established by the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) to allow insiders of publicly traded corporations to set up a trading plan for selling stocks they own. Rule 10b5-1 allows major holders to sell a predetermined number of shares at a predetermined time. Many corporate executives use 10b5-1 plans to avoid accusations of insider trading.

A surveiller.

Edit :
Au passage, le célèbre fond Greenlight Capital de David Einhorn s’est séparé de Liberty Global, soit une position qui représentait 1.81% du portefeuille au Q1 2017.

Greenlight Capital 2Q17 Letter a écrit :

Closed out multi-year Liberty Global long position after recent operating trends weakened; holding began with a position in Virgin Media in 2012 and together this investment generated an attractive profit and IRR

Greenlight Capital 2Q17 Letter

Déontologie : je détiens une position acheteuse/vendeuse sur une ou plusieurs société(s) listée(s) dans ce message.

Les derniers trimestriels :
http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press- … -FINAL.pdf

http://www.libertyglobal.com/pdf/press- … -FINAL.pdf
Attention, c’est 34x l’OFCF (operating free cash flow) mais 11x l’OCF.

Pour ceux qui ont accès au Financial Times, un article passionnant : Subscribe to read

En respectant le copyright, je peux extraire quelques phrases et j’avoue que le début est savoureux :

Financial Times a écrit :

John Malone, the US billionaire who controls European cable company Liberty Global, once described a potential tie-up with Vodafone as like trying to get a banana out of a jar. Vodafone’s management wondered at the time whether their business was the banana (presumably) or the jar (possibly) or perhaps the hand trying to ease the fruit out without squishing it?

Finalement vente des actifs Europééns à Vodaphone pour 19 milliards.

Le titre perd actuellement 12%….je comprends que c’est parceque l’emploi des fonds n’est pas encore défini ?

Avides/craintifs…
En attendant, vous vous prenez un -50%.

Pour moi, Malone a échoué en Europe.
Les abonnés n’acceptent pas des hausses de prix et la qualité du réseau cablé n’est pas différenciant contre la fibre/cuivre.
L’ARPU moyen se traine vers les 50-60$ quand il est vers les 90-100$ outre-atlantique.

Donc Malone vend ses poses. Dans la plupart des pays, il n’y a qu’un acheteur possible (marchés assez consolidés) donc le prix ne sera pas toujours intéressant.

Encore une vingtaine de jours et nous aurons le retour de la commission EU sur la validation (ou pas) de la vente à Vodafone.

Déontologie : je détiens une position acheteuse/vendeuse sur une ou plusieurs société(s) listée(s) dans ce message.