Obligations high yield émergents…

Zebonder

Non elle a dit qu’elle honorerait tous les paiements sur les dettes restruturees et toutes les autres obligations mais en passant AILLEURS que par New York

New York-for-Buenos Aires Swap Theory Spreads: Argentina Credit - Bloomberg Business

D’ailleurs les obligs de la province de buenos aires par ex sont en ce moment de bons achats d’apres nos voisins forumeurs.

Bonos - Cotizaciones - PUENTE

cliquer provinciales : regardez les obligations en usd ou marquees: ext de Buenos Aires ou Cordoba, il y en a une en euro qui ne passe pas par New York

Ceci dit, ce n’est pas une recommendation d’achat. Je crois tout simplement que ces hedge funds Singer et cie vont trop loin…Ils font du chantage pour avoir 100% de face value (nominal) alors qu’ils ont rachete les obligs a pas grand chose!

Dernière modification par sissi (11/04/2013 14h32)

Juge … à 83 ans et pour juger une affaire financière ?

Marfrig chute lourdement

Marfrig Bonds, Shares Tumble on Speculation Covenant Broken - Bloomberg Business

http://ir.marfrig.com.br/eng/comunicado … sp?id=2297

direct de Marfrig…j’ai plutot tendance a les croire…

@ Jeece : l’action reprend 6% après avoir perdu 40% depuis le début d’année… Marché de l’oblig aujourd’hui: 85-88%

@ ZeBonder, Sissi: c’est bizarre cet attermoiement sur les covenants alors que les résultats annuels ont été publiés avant, je me souviens les avoir regardés il y a qq semaines… C’est des covenants pour remboursement anticipé ou juste informatifs? ou zappage de coupon cumulatif?
Les résultats (déficitaires) étaient mauvais - donc pas une surprise que les covenants le soit aussi - mais il faudrait avoir des résultats encore bien plus mauvais pour avoir très sérieusement peur pour les obligs surtout la première échéance 2016. Enfin rien n’est impossible si la crise s’accentue (la croissance du brésil est aussi retombée près des 0)

@ l’amf, je n’ai pas d’oblig Marfrig

achat marfrig 2016, vers 91, car les obligs 2017/18/20 se sont stabilisees aussi

et vous?

Suivi à 95.5% pour la marfrig 2016. Pru en desous du pair maintenant.

je vais me faire une petite ligne de javer, par contre desarroladora  me fait "peur" même si le gain éventuel est en adéquation avec le risque pris.

Bonjour Sissi, merci pour toutes ces informations, je vais aller voir sur IB s’ils proposent aussi ces oblis.

Merci pour ces listes mais il n’y a pas d’obligs corporate emergentes et pas de high yield sur le deuxieme lien…helas

Un update de pershing fixed income latin america corporate bonds du 22 avril 13 il semble

http://www.pershingfixedincome.com/pmwi … mCorps.pdf

une oblig interessante meme si pas tres high yield, min 2k Pan American Energy
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/rd/en/a … N=77732515

Dernière modification par sissi (06/05/2013 13h37)

Oui dommage car elle va retourner au pair, etant la seule a tranche de 2k, et avec l’echeance la plus courte

Avez vous regarde la pan american energy que je viens de citer juste au-dessus? listee en Argentine mais active en Bolivie et au Chili…
Pan American Energy

Qu’en pensez vous? coupon de 7.85% sous le pair mais bon pour du long terme  - en petite position- vu leur secteur et surtout vu les faibles coupons qui sortent en ce moment

Cote B+ par Fitch
Fitch Affirms Pan American Energy LLC’s Ratings at ’B+’ & Argentine Branch at ’AAA(arg)’ | Business Wire

Dernière modification par sissi (06/05/2013 14h14)

Ce que je ne comprends pas c’est que la general shopping ne soit pas sur la liste,c’est peut etre pour ca qu’elle reste sous le pair car sous le radar?

Quant a pan energy je ne vois pas le rapport avec le pays et ses chiffres fiables ou pas.

D’ailleurs Christina vient de faire un move tres smart en remettant un gros montant de usd 400 millions a l’imf - a  qui le pays ne doit plus rien- pour beneficier d’un acces tres grand a de la devise usd …ce qui lui permettra de gerer ses paiements en usd beaucoup plus facilement.

Voici l’article trouve sur

Argentinien - Seite 3 message 4898

"When it comes to getting more dollars, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is more than willing to comply with the International Monetary Fund.

Argentina, which the IMF censured for underreporting inflation less than three months ago after three warnings over the past two years, last week authorized the deposit of $400 million with the Washington-based lender to increase the nation’s access to emergency cash. The move will boost Argentina’s special drawing rights that currently total $3.2 billion and comes as reserves, Fernandez’s main source for bond payments, declined to a six-year low of $39.8 billion.

Fernandez, who has also criticized the IMF for causing the country’s record $95 billion default in 2001, is using the bank to bolster her dwindling supply of dollars as a decade-long legal dispute with holdout creditors and her increasing influence over the economy leaves Argentina as the world’s least creditworthy debtor nation based on swaps trading. With overseas borrowing costs at 13.92 percent, Argentina hasn’t sold bonds globally in over a decade, prompting Fernandez to tighten capital controls and ban most dollar purchases.

“They’re doing this because they’re worried, and the special drawing rights helps them have more liquidity,” Claudio Loser, a former IMF director who now heads research firm Centennial Group Latin America, said by telephone from Washington. “Once the drawing rights are approved, they can use the money practically immediately, like cash.”

Fernandez’s spokesman Alfredo Scoccimarro didn’t return an e-mail and telephone calls seeking comment on whether the government plans to use the drawing rights.

The planned increase in Argentina’s deposits with the fund is in response to the IMF’s 2010 call for increased contributions from members as part of a “package of far- reaching reforms of the fund’s quotas and governance.”

The IMF proposal still needs the approval of the U.S. Congress.

Argentina used its special drawing rights in 2000, 2001 and 2003, fund data show. In January 2006, Fernandez’s late husband and predecessor Nestor Kirchner paid back the country’s $9.5 billion debt to the fund, saying he wanted to be free of the IMF’s “dictatorship.”

South America’s second-biggest economy also received as much as $2.7 billion in a general allocation of funds by the lender in 2009, returning them by the end of that year. It currently owes nothing to the IMF.

Fernandez has tapped more than $30 billion of central bank reserves since starting to use the funds to pay foreign debt in 2010. The following year, she banned most purchases of foreign currencies to stem capital outflows.

JPMorgan Chase & Co estimated on April 18 that reserves will plummet to $37.5 billion by the end of this year, the biggest drop in a decade.

An increase in drawing rights won’t improve Argentina’s creditworthiness or reduce its borrowing costs, according to Aldo Pignanelli, a former central bank president. For that to happen, the government needs to reduce its fiscal deficit, which increased last year to the widest since 2001, and improve the accuracy of its statistics.

Investors demand 11.96 percentage points more to own Argentine bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries, leaving the nation as the only distressed borrower among 55 emerging markets tracked by JPMorgan.

The cost of protecting $10 million of Argentine debt for five years using credit default swaps rose 100 basis points, or 1 percentage point, to 2,239 basis points yesterday. That’s the most expensive of any country in the world and more than twice as high as Cyprus, which agreed on March 25 to a 10 billion-euro ($13 billion) loan from the euro area and the IMF after the nation buckled under the weight of its financial industry.

“Spreads can drop if the country improves credibility and begins to do the right things,” Pignanelli, who now runs economic research firm Saver in Buenos Aires, said in a telephone interview. “The way we are going, we’ll never be able to reduce rates.”

In February, Argentina became the first member country to be censured by the IMF for not providing accurate data on inflation and economic growth under a procedure that can end in expulsion. The government’s data has been questioned by economists since early 2007, when Kirchner changed personnel at the statistics agency.

Consumer prices rose 24.4 percent in March from a year earlier, according to a report by opposition lawmakers that is based on estimates by independent economists, who face fines if they release statistics that differ from official data.

The statistics agency said inflation was 10.6 percent in that period.

The fund set a Sept. 29 deadline for the country to take “remedial measures” to improve the accuracy of the data. If it fails to do so, the lender can apply further sanctions, such as suspending its voting rights and barring the country from taking loans. The final step is “compulsory withdrawal.”

A central bank official, who asked not to be named because of bank policy, declined to comment on how an increased deposit with the IMF would affect reserves or if it planned to use the special drawing rights. An IMF official declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg.

When IMF’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Sept. 24 that the lender may give Argentina a “yellow card” for failing to improve inflation data, Fernandez responded that the lender has always “picked on” Argentina.

“The IMF considers us a bad example, a bad pupil, we are the ones that said ‘no’ to each and every one of its recipes since 2003,” Fernandez said on Sept. 26 at Georgetown University while on a trip to Washington. “We don’t have anything against the IMF ideologically, but it led us into Argentina’s worst-ever tragedy.”

Since Kirchner’s break with the fund in 2006, Argentina has been the only Group of 20 nation that hasn’t allowed the lender to review its finances, which is mandatory for all.

If the U.S. approves the proposal, Argentina will be eligible to receive sufficient funds to ensure that it can maintain debt payments over the next few years, according to Alfonso Prat-Gay, an opposition lawmaker and former central bank president.

The government “is just trying to grab $1.6 billion so that it can take it easy, perhaps until 2015,” Prat-Gay told the lower house of congress on April 17."         
27.04.2013

Zebonder les obligs de la province de Buenos Aires ou de Cordoba sont sous evaluees , dixit plusieurs gros investisseurs en obligs…d’ailleurs les cds viennent de rebaisser pas mal

En Allemagne ces obligs sont tres liquides …et le rendement semble en valoir le risque pour les Allemands…. a plus de 20% voir 24%

Meme chose que le Venezuela il y a 2 ans…dont les obligs donnent  a peine du 9 a 10% aujourd’hui
La petroleos de venezuela 12.75 2022 se tradait dans les 72 comme la PBA 10.88% 2021 aujourd’hui par ex

PS je ne cherche pas a vous convaincre! Juste a vous faire realiser que les corporations ne sont pas le pays et qul faut analyser par soi-meme pas par cliches negatifs de Singer (hedge fund cause contre l’Argentine) et autres…

Dernière modification par sissi (06/05/2013 14h28)