Amérique latine : obligations et autres placements en Amérique latine…

Un article qui me parait bien résumer la situation actuelle d’Odebrecht

Odebrecht?s bribery scandal casts a shadow over Latin America | LatinFinance

Des idées ce midi dans Marketaxess   mais sais pas si petite ou grosse tranche?

10 Emerging Market Corporate Bond Picks

Emerging market corporate bond prices have moved higher over the past year and that means yields are lower.

Over the past year, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund has produced a total return of about 11%, with bond yields contributing about 4.6 percentage points to the return. The iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF, which is focused on government debt, returned 9.4%, with 5 percentage points from yield. Now, investment grade EM sovereign bonds yield 3.7%, and corporate credits are boasting a slightly higher 4.3% yield, according to Gimme Credit.

Analysts Cedric Rimaud and Alexandre Dray at Gimme Credit recently published a list of 10 favorite emerging market corporate bond issues, which as a group have a slightly higher yield, at a median of 5.2% and an average of 5.8%. The analysts aren’t afraid of risky countries and junk-rated credits that they think have improving credit metrics that the market may be ignoring. A few names could have nice upside as possible acquisition targets. The bonds with the highest yields have the greatest return potential: those include bonds issued by Brazilian airline GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes, Mexican media play TV Azteca, Ukraine agriculture exporter Kernel, Indian mining company Vedanta, Mexican chemicals play Grupo Kuo and Mexican cement producer Cemex.

Here it is the edited list with commentary from Rimaud and Dray.

Gol Linhas Aereas (Brazil - airline). Following a restructuring of its debt, including a loss of face value for Gol bondholders, S&P Global in July 2016 raised its rating to CCC (a junk rating) from selective default. While a distressed credit, renegotiating its large debt burden and aircraft leases in the wake of weak demand and the recession in Brazil, should help the company rebound in 2017 and 2018. If the government succeeds in removing a cap on foreign ownership of domestic airlines, GOL could become an attractive investment for a foreign airline, thus lifting asset prices. At a yield of 9.8%, GOLLBZ 9.25% Jul-2020s are attractive, in particular relative to Avianca’s 8% May-2020s, which have now rallied to yield 7.2%.

TV Azteca (Mexico -- media/broadcaster). With the fall in advertising from slower economic activity, less interest in its programming, and a rise in programming expenses, the media group is investing in content to lure clients back in and improve credit metrics. Expansion into Peru and Colombia should diversify revenue, though it’s early. It is reducing its stake in its Colombian fiber-optic venture. TZA 7.625% Sep-2020s currently yield an attractive 9.9%.

[b]Grupo Kuo [/b](Mexico -- chemicals). This is a typical emerging market conglomerate with segments as unrelated as synthetic rubber, pork, frozen food and transmissions. Its credit metrics are stable and reflect the diversified exposure to the Mexican economy, and its businesses have benefited from the weaker Mexican peso. Ebitda margins are rising in most businesses, reducing net leverage and improving its interest coverage ratio. But its bonds have underperformed versus comparable Mexican issues; investors have priced in too many risks. The KUOBMM 6.25% Dec-2022s yield 5.4%, an attractive level.

[b]Cemex[/b] (Mexico -- cement and building materials). It has delivered a very strong EBITDA growth in 2016, in particular in the US and in Mexico, aided by higher prices and a good demand in the residential and infrastructure sectors. It also has Europe and Asia exposure. It has worked hard on profitability and free cash flow to reduce its high debt to more manageable levels. Some asset sales have gone through and some more are waiting to be completed. As credit metrics improving, it is eyeing an investment grade rating sometime in 2018-19. At a yield of 4.95%, CEMEX 7.75% Apr-2026s are still an attractive investment.

Vedanta (India -mining). With near-term refinancing needs for debts coming due in FY16 and FY17 largely resolved, sentiments have improved at Vedanta. Operating environment will remain challenging on the lack of sustainable recovery in gas, oil, zinc and aluminum prices. At a yield of 6.4%, VEDLN 7.125% May-2023s are more attractive than similar bonds in Latin America.

Klabin (Brazil - paper and packaging). leverage ratios will decrease in 2017, on higher EBITDA and reduced capital expenditure. With rising kraftliner and pulp prices in China and reduced costs, the short-term outlook is particularly bright. (5.25% 2024 notes yield 5%).

EVRAZ (Russia - mining) Evraz earnings should see continued strength in the first half of 2017 due to elevated prices for steel, iron ore and coking coal. EVRAZ bonds offer relative value across the entire curve compared to other Russian steelmakers. (6.75% 2018 notes yield 1.75% and the 8.25% Jan-2021 notes yield 4.4%).

VimpelCom (Russia - wireless services). The telecom’s balance sheet is leaner due to Russian ruble strength and ownership shifts. The performance of the 7.25% 2023 bonds (issued by GTH Finance BV; yield of 5.2%) will benefit from improving results in Pakistan and Bangladesh.

HEP Group (Croatia - state-owned electric utility). Sixty percent of generation is hydro-powered, so weather affects operating results. It has industry-low leverage ratios, a sound liquidity position and good access to debt markets in U.S. dollars and Euros. The Croatian government is reportedly considering an IPO this year, which would improve transparency and governance. (5.875% Oct-2022 notes yield 4.5%).

Kernel (Ukraine - grain and sunflower oil producer). The company weathered Ukraine’s economic crisis of 2014-15 thanks to its good vertically-integrated business model and its focus on exports outside Ukraine. Amid better economic conditions going forward, it will maintain adequate credit measures this year. (8.75% Jan-2022 notes yield 7.75%

Source: MarketAxess BondTicker; for a comprehensive daily summary of HG and HY trading for TRACE-eligible bonds, see the Corporate Trade Summary on BondTicker.

Dernière modification par sissi (10/03/2017 15h01)

General Shopping vient de publier les résultats du Q4. Ils sont en baisse par rapport à 2015. comme ils ont céder des malls, il faudrait comparer à surface égale.

ZeBonder a écrit :

Pour Camposol, j’en avais depuis longtemps, elle avait baisé dans les 85% avant l’échange alors j’ai renforcé ma position et refusé l’échange, elle est désormais au pair avec remboursement début Février

InRetail était en dessous du pair pendant une certaine période, ce n’est plus le cas maintenant.

Pour LATAM il y a du souverain sous le pair :
- Mexique ( US91086QAZ19 )
- Salvador ( USP01012AT38 

Pour l’US en IG avec plus de 6%, elles sont toutes quasiment au dessus du pair mais il en reste dans la zone des 4% et on peut les optimiser avec la marge d’IB.

La Mexico US91086QAZ19 a bien remonté aujourd’hui ( vers les 100% ) , est ce que ce serait parce que le Mexique compte racheter une partie de sa dette ?

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The operation included the $1.644bn early repayment of a dollar-denominated bond due March 2019, the buyback of $500m dollar bonds along the yield curve to promote a more liquid secondary market; and the withdrawal of $1.006bn in bonds in circulation due between 2020 and 2025. Holders of those bonds were offered the option to swap their bonds for the new 10-year issue.

Mieux vaut éviter à mon avis

http://www.valor.com.br/internationa…tcy-protection

Odebrecht S.A. considers resorting to bankruptcy protection
By Graziella Valenti | São Paulo

Admitting that a judicial recovery may be unavoidable is no longer taboo for Odebrecht. In talks among its top management and major state banks, the industrial conglomerate already admits the outcome is inevitable for holding company Odebrecht S.A. (ODB), which last year had consolidated gross revenue of R$90 billion, if credit doesn’t return at a regular pace.

"The company’s plan A is still to avoid seeking protection from courts, but plan B has already been put in place," said a source close to the matter.

Until few months ago, Odebrecht was peremptorily denying the risk of resorting to judicial reorganization to restructure its debts. But there was a clear change of position, according to sources.

Contacted by Valor, Odebrecht’s press offices said it “continues advancing positively, with good market receptiveness, the restructuring plan for some of its businesses.”

ODB’s net debt stood at R$76.4 billion at the end of June. However, the value of ODB’s judicial recovery is difficult to estimate. The amount that would be included for discussion in the recovery plan is not directly related to consolidated debts in the holding company. It’s still under study what companies of the conglomerate would end up resorting to bankruptcy protection along with ODB.

The initial certainty is that petrochemical company Braskem would be left out, but its direct parent company, Odebrecht Serviços e Participações, would have to be included in the process. The group’s shares in Braskem were given as collateral for a R$4.5 billion bond issue carried out by ODB for the restructuring of Odebrecht Agroindustrial’s finances.

ODB is under pressure from the liquidity crisis of its former core business, Odebrecht Engenharia e Construção (OEC), and from the large volume of commitments related to collateral, capital-support contracts and insurance of its subsidiaries.

For example, in a single contract, ODB is a guarantor of $700 million in a major project abroad — in a Latin American country in which relations are in crisis after the plea deals — and the project is stalled, according to a source close to the matter. It’s this entangled architecture that ODB needs to reorganize in the face of the new flow of funds.

Ideally, Odebrecht Transport, the group’s logistical infrastructure concession arm, would also be left out of bankruptcy protection. Only ODB’s indirect commitments to the projects would be consolidated in the process.

Odebrecht Engenharia e Construção has warned creditors that it ended 2016 with much less than $4 billion in cash, although it has not yet disclosed its annual financial statement yet. In early 2016, its cash balance totaled R$10 billion.

The construction company was the group’s most liquid business. Historically, it had more money in the bank than debt. Last September, however, the debt already surpassed the available balance by R$6 billion.

The consolidation of one of the group’s largest debts, of Odebrecht Óleo e Gás (OOG), would depend on what happened first: ODB’s bankruptcy filing or the beginning of the company’s extrajudicial recovery. The company’s debt amounts to $5.5 billion.

The announcement of an extra-judicial solution for OOG only depends on the grouping of bondholders, which account for 60% of the total. According to sources, the company would already be very close to that percentage.

Talking openly about the group’s financial risks and possible judicial recovery is part of Odebrecht’s recent strategy. It also serves as an instrument of pressure. Discussions regarding the scope of the R$7.5 billion agreement signed with the Federal Public Ministry (MPF, the public prosecutor’s office) are hindering the improvement of the company’s credit risk. In addition, they raise concerns about new value for settling cases opened by the Federal Attorney General’s Office (AGU) and that would add to the amount already agreed with the MPF.

Fifteen days ago, the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) signaled that it would resume the release of credit for the group’s exports, after a new analysis of the board. There is a total of $600 million in arrears that the OEC expected to receive.

Although BNDES finances the country that contracted the project, the payment is made to the construction company. Regarding the progress of such loans, the company said that it has already pledged to sign the letters of compliance.

Odebrecht : bon article
Odebrecht Finance (WKN A1HJ0T)(WKN-A1HJ0T)

Bonjour,
J’aimerai investir sur un support exposé aux marchés actions de l’Argentine. Je suis assez positif sur ce pays.
Le problème c’est de trouver un fond ouvert en Europe. Avez-vous une piste d’investissement possible ?

Edit: J’ai trouvé la réponse. ETFs with Argentina Exposure | ETF Database
Pas évident tout de même.. ARTG a 59% d’Argentine, je vais creuser un peu au niveau des frais.

Dernière modification par niceday (27/04/2017 00h03)

Dans un premier temps, en effet j’ai réalisé que c’était dans la partie obligation mais ce n’est pas grave car je suis aussi positif sur les taux argentins.

Le pays devrait commencer à se redresser. Après la récession de 2016, on devrait passer à une croissance positive en 2017.

La banque centrale arrive à être crédible pour les investisseurs. L’inflation est en bonne voie pour atteindre la cible (12-17% pour 2017). Elle est en baisse sur des niveaux de 30-35% en 2016 à 25-27% environ selon les derniers chiffres. Même si l’inflation cible 2018 (8-12%) est beaucoup trop ambitieuse, le trend est plutôt favorable pour atteindre une certaine normalisation avec la région.
Les baisses donc entamées depuis plus d’un an des taux court (taux Lebac 35 jours) de la banque centrale ont été de bonnes décisions, même si cette baisse a été stoppée, il y a quelques jours, par une hausse surprise de 150bp pour s’établir à 26.25%. Alors cette hausse est toute relative comparée au niveau des taux, elle ne m’inquiète pas. Elle permet d’aider le FX.
La BCRA vient d’annoncer une hausse de ses réserves en USD. L’utilisation de forward rollé pour se protéger et maintenir le USD/ARS sous les 17$ est assez efficace mais reporte le problème pour plus tard (car ceux sont des FX Swap rollés), alors je considère que cette hausse des réserves $ est une garantie supplémentaire.
Le retour de la dette argentine est aussi très positif pour les marchés. Son programme d’émission en USD est bien accueilli, il me semble.
Ce qui à mes yeux est très positifs pour les marchés actions, c’est le retour des investisseurs étrangers. Leur programme d’amnistie fiscale est un succès. Argentina says $116.8 billion declared in record tax amnesty
| Reuters Pour mettre en perspective, ces 120bn$ représentent 20% du GDP.
Du coté plus structurel, l’Argentine compte à son actif de belles ressources naturelles qui sont abondantes dont le Brésil la Chine sont dépendants. Sa dette publique et celle des acteurs privés restent faibles pour la zone.

Je ne dirai pas que Macri est en train de perdre son électorat. Les élections en octobre seront bien sur un point à suivre. J’espère que Macri gagnera en marge de manœuvre. Les récentes mesures pour les hausses de salaires ont été bien perçues. La baisse de l’inflation a un impact réel sur l’économie, et l’aidera aussi à se maintenir. Son challenge c’est de gagner de la crédibilité auprès de la région de Buenos Aires où le Péronisme s’installe.

Bon sinon, j’espère que Lyxor travaille sur le référencement de l’Argentine dans ces ETF. Je suis certain qu’il trouverait de la demande auprès des institutionnels.

Le mois dernier je regrettais de ne pas avoir maintenu une position sur le Brésil avec les ETFs leveraged BRZU, UBR ou LBJ que je détenais avant l’élection US et que j’avais vendus à pertes après l’élection.

Ils avaient repris toute la perte et bien plus depuis 3 mois.

Avec la claque d’aujourd’hui suite à des allégations de corruption du Président, ça fait drôle.
EWZ (sans levier) a perdu jusque 16% aujourd’hui et BRZU (levier x3) 45%!

Je ne suis pas encore entré sur la baisse, il y a beaucoup de fébrilité en ce moment, mon portefeuille est de nouveau en baisse, je passe mon tour.

JBS boit la tasse … les obligations baissent … opportunite d’achat des obligations?
Chute de plus de 30% de l?action JBS ce lundi | OBLIS

Ils oublient de mentionner la 8.25% 2020 sous le pair! en 2k de minimum

Zebonder …vous avez lu que Goldman Sachs en ont achete a rabais … des 6.% 2022 pour quelques 865 millions de dollars ?

Focus sur le Venezuela | OBLIS

Goldman a eu ses obligations PDVSA à 31% et soit Maduro reste et les coupons sont toujours payés, soit il part et ils auront les coupons plus le gain en capital.

Goldman under fire for buying Venezuela "hunger bonds" - Orlando Sentinel

"We are invested in PDVSA bonds because, like many in the asset management industry, we believe the situation in the country must improve over time," the statement said.

Goldman Sachs did not say in its statement how much it paid for the bonds. The Journal, citing unidentified sources, said the bank paid $865 million for the $2.8 billion in bonds, roughly 31 cents on the dollar.

Goldman Sachs did not say in its statement how much it paid for the bonds. The Journal, citing unidentified sources, said the bank paid $865 million for the $2.8 billion in bonds, roughly 31 cents on the dollar.