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Morningstar continue à être positif sur Exelon :

Morningstar.com a écrit :

Exelon management released a detailed look at its 2016 hedge position at Exelon Generation during the 48th Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference, which we are attending in Orlando, Fla. Management also gave us a more detailed update on its five-year plan that would result in the regulated utilities covering most of its $1.24 per share dividend. We are reaffirming our $42 per share fair value estimate, wide moat rating, and stable moat trend.

Cela m’avait échappé, mais le producteur d’électricité Exelon a convenu du rachat de son pair Pepco en Avril.

Amusant de voir qu’en Europe, les utilities se diversifient avec des filiales étrangères non régulées, tandis qu’aux USA, c’est exactement l’inverse…

Ici Exelon rachète chèrement (en plus par émission de titres, alors qu’Exelon décote) un producteur d’électricité régulé, Pepco, réputé pour la stabilité de son cash flow.

L’avis de Morningstar sur Exelon :

Morningstar a écrit :

Valuation 05/01/2014

We are cutting our fair value estimate to $40 per share from $42 after incorporating $2 per share of value dilution related to Exelon’s proposed acquisition of Pepco. Based on our $19-per-share pre-merger fair value estimate for Pepco, Exelon’s $27.25-per-share cash offer represents a 43% premium to fair value and $2.39 per share of value dilution. Potential synergies and financing benefits partially offset the value dilution. After incorporating first-quarter earnings and Exelon’s updated hedge profile, we continue to expect trough earnings at $2.21 per share in 2015-16 and midcycle earnings near $4.30 based on our bullish outlook for power and gas prices. On a midcycle basis, we project Exelon Generation can earn $5 billion EBITDA. This is double our 2016 trough mark-to-market EBITDA estimate for Exelon Generation. Our midcycle power prices are about 20% above current forwards as of early May. They are based on a $5.40 per thousand cubic feet midcycle gas price and market heat rates about 20% higher than current 2016 forwards. At the retail business, we assume 8% long-term normalized gross margins and 1% annual volume growth beyond 2015. At the regulated utilities, we assume all three utilities earn average 10% returns on equity starting in 2015 and increase the rate base 7% annually over 2014-17 based on $3.0 billion of average annual investment. We use a 10% cost of equity and 7.5% cost of capital in our discounted cash flow valuation.